The decision to hold early elections was announced by President Shavkat Mirziyoyev on May 8 at a meeting with the heads of the chambers of the Oliy Majlis (parliament), parties, judicial and executive authorities.
The decision was made after a nationwide referendum on the new Constitution of Uzbekistan, which took place earlier on April 30. A similar constitutional referendum took place in Kazakhstan in 2022.
The Central Election Commission announced that 90.21% of the referendum participants supported the amendments to the Constitution, and 9.35% voted against them. The changes affected 65% of the text of the Constitution. The most significant update was the so-called “nullification” of the previous two presidential terms of Shavkat Mirziyoyev, which allows him to run for the presidency for two consecutive terms and to remain in power until 2037.
In addition, according to the amendments, Uzbekistan is proclaimed a secular and social state, which was absent in the previous edition. The abolition of the death penalty and a ban on the extradition of citizens of Uzbekistan to a foreign state were constitutionally enshrined.
The Uzbek authorities planned to hold a referendum on amendments to the Constitution last year. However, it was disrupted by protests in Karakalpakstan. The then-proposed new version of the Constitution planned to significantly limit the autonomy of the republic and deprive it of the right to secession from Uzbekistan.
In July 2022, protests erupted in and around the capital of Karakalpakstan, Nukus. The authorities severely suppressed them. According to official figures, 21 people died during the protests, more than 240 were injured, and more than 500 were detained. More than 60 people received various terms; some of them were released on parole. As a result, President Mirziyoyev proposed to preserve the legal status of Karakalpakstan (Currenttime 2023).
Earlier observers believed that Mirziyoyev could remain in power until 2040, but at a meeting on May 8, the President of Uzbekistan announced that he was giving up the remaining 3.5 years of his current presidential term. He explained his decision as follows: “You yourself see, according to our Basic Law, firstly, all branches of power are being reformed, and relations and balance between them are seriously changing” (Gazeta.uz 2023). Observers note the similarity of holding early elections with the scenario in Kazakhstan, where, after holding a referendum on the constitution, President Tokayev announced early presidential elections.
The holding of early presidential elections in Uzbekistan has given rise to many interpretations of the possible reasons for such a decision. Political scientist Rafael Sattarov links the holding of early elections with a relatively stable situation in Uzbekistan. Stability is relative and means only the absence of significant opposition in the face of the growing dissatisfaction of the population with the socio-economic situation. Re-election under the new constitution, according to Sattarov, was also important from the point of view of the struggle within the elites. Mirziyoyev was unable to establish full control over the law enforcement agencies of Uzbekistan, and this gives rise to the concern that the remaining 3.5 years of the presidency, already under the inactive constitution, could be used to de-legitimize Mirziyoyev’s presidency (Ozodlik Radiosi 2023).
The elections themselves do not promise anything unexpected. The Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe repeatedly emphasized the absence of a pluralistic environment in both presidential elections of 2016 and 2021, which took place after the death of the first President Islam Karimov (OSCE ODIHR 2017, OSCE ODIHR 2022). Four out of five government-controlled parties in parliament have already nominated their candidates for the upcoming elections. The head of the “Milliy Tiklanish” (National Revival) party, Alisher Kadirov, announced that the party will support the candidate from the “UzLidep” (Liberal Democratic Party of Uzbekistan) party, acting head of state Shavkat Mirziyoyev, instead of nominating its own candidate. Thus, early elections will be held without meaningful competition.
The only competitor could be Khidirnazar Allakulov, an economist, former professor, and founder of the independent democratic party “Truth, Development, and Unity”, However, the elections are held so rapidly that the opposition party is unable to participate, including due to the lack of official registration. This is the second attempt by Allakulov to register an independent political party. The first attempt was unsuccessful because part of the signatures collected for the registration of the party were declared invalid by the Ministry of Justice of Uzbekistan, which served as a basis for the rejection of the registration.
In addition, the supporters of the independent party and Allakulov himself are constantly attacked by unknown people. The last attack took place on May 20, 2023, in the city of Andijan, in the presence of police officers who did not undertake any actions to stop the attackers. Khidirnazar Allakulov traveled to Andijan with his supporters to collect the twenty thousand signatures needed for the official registration of a political party (Radiosi 2023). In its 2022 world report, Freedom House assessed Uzbekistan as “not free,” assigning it a score of 11 out of 100 in political rights and civil liberties (Freedom House 2022).
After the likely re-election of Mirziyoyev for a third term, political changes are unlikely to follow in the country, Uzbek political scientist Farhod Tolipov believes. Mirziyoyev’s state system does not differ from the system of the previous head of state (Islam Karimov), the expert believes (Gasymov 2023).
– The appetite of Uzbek society for change is growing; people want the authorities to continue the transformation in accordance with their own declarations. But the demand for political change now runs counter to the needs of the president himself, who is hindered from consolidating power by flirting with more democracy and openness, says political scientist Rafael Sattarov (Sattarov 2023).
As the incumbent President runs for a third term, civil liberties are rapidly shrinking, especially freedom of speech, which used to be seen as the greatest achievement of Shavkat Mirziyoyev. Recently, at least six journalists and bloggers in Uzbekistan were forced by the authorities to close their Telegram channels with tens of thousands of subscribers (Reporters Without Borders 2023). The problem with these cases is that government actions lack legal justification, and bloggers are warned that if they report about government pressure, they will face persecution.
We can now say that the upcoming early presidential elections in Uzbekistan will be held in the best traditions of the first President of Uzbekistan, Islam Karimov, without competition and surprises. But the elections will definitely be crucial from the point of view of the deconstruction of the image of a “New Uzbekistan”. Politically, there is nothing new in “New Uzbekistan”.
References
Currenttime. 2023. “CEC of Uzbekistan: 90.21% of referendum participants supported amendments to the Constitution.” Currenttime. https://www.currenttime.tv/a/uzbekistan-itogi-referenduma-tsik/32386777.html.
Freedom House. 2022. “FREEDOM IN THE WORLD 2022 Uzbekistan.” Freedom House. https://freedomhouse.org/country/uzbekistan/freedom-world/2022.
Gasymov, Nurlan. 2023. “Presidential elections in Uzbekistan are held ahead of schedule.” Vedomosti. https://www.vedomosti.ru/politics/articles/2023/05/10/974302-vibori-prezidenta-uzbekistana-proidut-dosrochno.
Gazeta.uz. 2023. “Shavkat Mirziyoyev announces early presidential elections in Uzbekistan.” Gazeta.uz. https://www.gazeta.uz/ru/2023/05/08/early-election-president/.
OSCE ODIHR. 2022. “ODIHR Election Observation Mission Final Report.” OSCE. https://www.osce.org/files/f/documents/9/e/516435_0.pdf.
OSCE ODIHR. 2017. “OSCE/ODIHR Election Observation Mission.” OSCE. https://www.osce.org/files/f/documents/c/2/306451.pdf.
Ozodlik Radiosi. 2023. “Early presidential election: why is Mirziyoyev in a hurry?” RFE/RL. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UkLkOHL7YlQ.
Radiosi, Ozodlik. 2023. “OzodNazar: Khidirnazar Allakulov, who is forming a new party, and his supporters were attacked.” RFE/RL. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j3NQYs_L6cE.
Reporters Without Borders. 2023. “Wave of closures of Telegram news channels in Uzbekistan: RSF asks President Mirziyoyev to respond.” Reporters Without Borders. https://rsf.org/en/wave-closures-telegram-news-channels-uzbekistan-rsf-asks-president-mirziyoyev-respond.
Sattarov, Rafael. 2023. “Resetting reforms. Why the Mirziyoyev regime in Uzbekistan is losing stability.” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. https://carnegieendowment.org/politika/89730.
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